Mixed Martial Arts Math
Could we predict who’s definitely going to win or who’s definitely going to lose through logic?
UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship Storyline (2013–2016)
In UFC 168, Ronda Rousey defeated Miesha Tate via armbar in the third round to defend her UFC Women’s Bantamweight title for the second time as well as closing their rivalry.
After defeating Tate, Rousey dominated her next four by finishing all of them inside the first round. Rousey then fought the undefeated Holly Holm in a very hyped-up UFC 193 event in the land of down under.
Unfortunately, Holm captured the UFC Women’s Bantamweight title by ending Rousey’s 12-fight undefeated streak including her 6-consecutive UFC title defenses with a vicious head kick KO in the second round.
After losing to Rousey on UFC 168, Tate won her next 4-consecutive fights and was given another title shot facing the new champion, Holly Holm.
If Holm defeated Rousey, the one who defeated Tate, does that mean Tate was going to be an easier fight for Holm?
UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship Storyline (2014–2017)
On the twelfth of December 2014, Carla Esparza defeated Rose Namajunas via third-round rear-naked choke to be The Ultimate Fighter season 20 Women’s Strawweight tournament winner and crowned as the inaugural UFC Women’s Strawweight Champion.
On Esparza’s first title defense, she was defeated via TKO in the first round by Joanna Jędrzejczyk. After capturing the UFC Women’s Strawweight title from Esparza, Jędrzejczyk defended UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship title five times.
After losing to Esparza, Namajunas won three out of her next four bouts and was given another title shot facing the new champion, Joanna Jędrzejczyk.
If Jędrzejczyk defeated Esparza, the one who defeated Namajunas for the inaugural title, does that mean Namajunas was going to be an easier fight for Jędrzejczyk?
UFC Bantamweight Championship Storyline (2016–2017)
After defeating TJ Dillashaw via unanimous decision, Dominick Cruz regained his UFC Bantamweight Championship title after losing it in 2014 due to inactivity from his own fair share of injuries.
In Cruz’s 2nd-title defense, he fought TJ Dillashaw’s former teammate, the bantamweight powerhouse, Cody Garbrandt. On UFC 207, Garbrandt gave one of the best underdog performances in MMA history, ending Cruz’s 13-fight winning streak that spanned for a decade.
In Garbrandt’s first title defense, he was set to face the former UFC Bantamweight Champion, his former teammate, TJ Dillashaw.
If Garbrandt defeated Cruz, the one who defeated Dillashaw, does that mean Dillashaw was going to be an easier fight for Garbrandt?
Could the underdogs defeat the undefeated champions who already defeated the ones who defeated them?
Going into the fifth and final round, Holm was up three rounds to one. The only way Tate could win is if she finishes the fight either via KO/TKO or Submission… and she did. Miesha Tate did the impossible task of upsetting the odds defeating Holly Holm via rear-naked choke with only a minute and thirty seconds left becoming the new UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion on UFC 196.
On UFC 217, both underdogs knocked out two undefeated champions. It only took 03:03 in the first round for Rose Namajunas to snap Jonna Jędrzejczyk’s 5-consecutive title defenses becoming the new UFC Women’s Strawweight Champion.
While, TJ Dillashaw regained his title inside the second round by finishing his former teammate, Cody Garbrandt.
This is where MMA math comes into play.
Based on logic, the champions would easily run through the challengers since they already defeated the one who defeated those challengers. However, it’s like rock paper scissors where rock beats paper while paper beats scissors but scissors beat rock.
Three exemplary examples happened on three different occasions but all had the same outcome. Everybody was expecting this as a walk in the park for the champions. Unfortunately, basic logical reasoning isn’t always the answer to everything. The point is life’s way too unpredictable even with a clear logical path.